SCC Preview: Chevy Rock and Roll 400 at Richmond

Now let's get to the nitty-gritty. Richmond represents the last race before the Chase for the Sprint Cup, and there will be a lot of pressure on a few of the drivers. Looking over at the ever-informational Jayski.com, I saw the following scenarios: Tony Stewart needs to finish at least 36th (or lead a lap and finish 37th or better) to make the Chase. That should be fairly easy for him to accomplish. Matt Kenseth needs to finish at least 26th or lead a lap and 28th or better. Kenseth's history at Richmond is not great, but he should be strong enough to accomplish that task and make the Chase. Jeff Gordon needs to finish at least 24th or lead a lap and finish 25th. He hasn't finished worse than ninth at Richmond in three races. Denny Hamlin, who dominated the first race at Richmond, needs to finish at least 21st or lead a lap and finish 22nd or better. Hamlin slots in at the top spot in our prerace rankings, so obviously I don't think he'll have a problem.

If the four guys above were to make it, 11 spots would be filled. The 12th and final spot is where it gets interesting. Clint Bowyer is currently 12th, but he is only 17 points ahead of David Ragan. If our rankings held true, Bowyer would finish in the top 10 and secure that spot in the Chase. Either way, Ragan will need to finish at least three or four spots ahead of Bowyer (pending where those spots are, laps led, etc.) to get into the Chase. Meanwhile, Kasey Kahne sits 48 points out and is in real trouble. But he has raced well at Richmond in his career, and if the other two falter, Kahne could be in position to slip in. But I think Bowyer will just be too strong this weekend to lose his spot. Ragan will need to have his best run ever at Richmond just to put himself in the position of making the Chase, and I don't see that happening.

As I looked over our rankings this week, Denny Hamlin (Market price: 22.7) sticks out as a popular choice, but when I looked at the numbers, it was clear to me that this will be again be Kyle Busch's (25.2) week. In seven races at Richmond, Busch has six top-5s. Let that sink in. Not top-10s. Top-5s. He hasn't won at Richmond yet, but he has three seconds, two fourths and a fifth. I can also imagine that Busch still has a little bit of a chip on his shoulder after his tiff with Carl Edwards, and he wants another win to put under his belt before the Chase. Busch will be on my SCC squad.

Richmond is a flat track like Pocono, but Hamlin is still a great choice. He has never started outside the top seven at Richmond, and at a short track, a good starting spot is very important for a good finish. In May, Hamlin had the dominant car at Richmond, leading 381 laps. Unfortunately, a tire problem led to a finish not indicative of his effort. This week, Hamlin will get the finish he deserves.

The defending champion of this race, Clint Bowyer (21.3), should also have a strong day. Bowyer has never finished worse than 12th at Richmond, but has led only 17 laps in five races at the track. He needs a good finish this week to get into the Chase, and he will deliver that. Bowyer loves tracks like Richmond, which is short, with a little bit of banking in the turns. Will Bowyer be a factor to win? I don't see it, but a top-10 is a near-guarantee if he doesn't suffer some bad luck.

You want something of an interesting pick this week, how about Ryan Newman (20.0)? Newman has eight top-10s, with one win, in 13 races at Richmond. He has only one finish worse than 20th and has been 11th or better in four of the past five Richmond races. Newman has flown under the radar a bit after his Daytona win, but his season is starting to take a turn for the positive. He should be a top-10 challenger and might even have a chance to win, but I think a top-10 is the best label for him. Don't worry about any distraction of switching teams at the end of the season.

Bobby Labonte (16.9) doesn't often have the car to compete at a track, but that isn't nearly as important at Richmond. Track knowledge and driving ability will both be more of a requisite this week for a good finish. Labonte has finished in the teens in three straight Richmond races and is at a great price for SCC. Labonte is not often an option for us, so it's nice when you can pick him up and actually use him.

In case you haven't heard, young phenom Joey Logano (12.7) will be making his Cup debut this weekend at Richmond. His hype is similar to major league pitcher Joba Chamberlain's debut. Next season he will be taking over one of the high-profile rides in NASCAR. That said, I wouldn't expect "Joba-type" success from Logano right away. Honestly, it would be hard for him to bust into the top 20 this week. Though he has considerable talent, Richmond will be a tough track for him to tame. I think the best we can hope for is a 25th, and that's pretty optimistic. That doesn't necessarily make him a sleeper, but he could be an OK option for the price.

So, um, sorry about Greg Biffle last week. I could look at all the help I gave with three top-10s in my favorites, or the great sleeper in AJ Allmendinger, but Biff sticks in my craw a little. Nevertheless, Matt Kenseth (21.7) is the guy I'm not going to overpay to get this week. Kenseth will be a decent finisher, and a driver to keep if you have seen his price grow, but he's just not worth that rate. His history at Richmond is such that I see a top-15, but not a single-digit finish. If I were going to spend that money, I'd want someone with more upside at the track.

Kyle Busch (locked in at 25.1): Will bounce back from an "off" week.
Jimmie Johnson (locked in at 23.6): Could he be warming up for a third championship?
Denny Hamlin (22.7): Was so dominant at Richmond before the tire trouble.
Scott Riggs (15.3): A total shot in the dark here, but there are a lot of bad cars this week.
AJ Allmendinger (locked in at 13.3): Price jumped after last week, so I'll keep him for one more week.

Kevin Rounce is an editor for ESPN Fantasy Games.